2017 chaka chodabwitsa cha katundu wa ndege - phwando lidzatha liti?

Disembala 2017 idakwera chaka ndi chaka (YoY) ndi 4.5% pamavoliyumu onyamula katundu wapadziko lonse lapansi. Othandizira kwambiri anali madera oyambira Asia Pacific (+8%) ndi North America (+ 5.1%). Kukula kwa Europe kunali 2.2% kokha, pomwe katundu wandege wochokera ku Africa adachita 7.5%. MESA (Middle East & South Asia) ndi Central & South America adawona chiwonjezeko potengera avareji yapadziko lonse lapansi. Inali Europe yomwe idakula kwambiri ngati kopita (+ 6.8%). Kukula kwa zokolola, komabe, kudakopa chidwi kwambiri: zokolola zapamawu onse zidakwera ndi 10% YoY, yoyezedwa ndi EUR, ndi kuchuluka kwa 23.5% (!) mu USD. Poyerekeza ndi Novembala, zokolola za USD zidakwera ndi 2.5%, chinthu chinanso chodziwika bwino, popeza zokolola zimatsika pakati pa Novembala ndi Disembala.

Kwa gawo la 4 lonse, kukula kwa voliyumu ya YoY kunali 6.6%, zochititsa chidwi poganizira kuti katundu wa mpweya - pambuyo pa zaka zambiri za kusowa kwa ntchito - adayambanso kukula kuyambira September 2016. Inde, izi zinapangitsa kuti zikhale zowonjezereka. 'zovuta' kuti makampani alembe ziwerengero zolimba za kukula kwa voliyumu chaka ndi chaka kumapeto kwa chaka cha 2017. Komabe, vuto limenelo silinayime pakukula kwakukulu kwa ndalama za ndege za Q4, monga zokolola za USD zinayamba Kukula ndi maperesenti owirikiza kawiri ndendende kuyambira Seputembala 2017… Kuperewera kwa mphamvu m'misika ingapo, kusinthasintha kwa kusinthana kwamitengo ndi kukwera kwamitengo yamafuta zonse zidathandizira pakukula kwa ndalama za ndege padziko lonse lapansi kupitilira 25% mgawo lapitali. cha chaka chodabwitsa kwambiri chonyamula katundu mumlengalenga.

Titha kutcha 2017 kukhala chaka chokulirapo. Zolemba zambiri zidasweka, ndipo zizindikiro zambiri zidayima zobiriwira pafupifupi chaka chonse. Komabe, chaka sichinali chosiyana ndi zaka zina chifukwa 2017 idadziwanso opambana ndi otayika: mizinda yoyambira & kopita, magawo ndi makampani omwe adakula, ena omwe adatsalira. Nayi chiwonetsero chathu chapamwamba cha YoY.

Pomwe katundu wamba adakwera ndi 10.5%, katundu wina adakula ndi 7.4%, zomwe zidapangitsa kuti chiwonjezeko chonse chikule ndi 9.6% (10.8% mu DTK). Kupititsa patsogolo zokolola (mu USD) kunalinso kokulirapo pa katundu wamba (+ 9.4% vs + 5.9%). Magulu omwe akukula kwambiri anali Vulnerables & High Tech, Pharmaceuticals and Flowers, kusonyeza kukula kwa zokolola za USD za 8%, 5.4% ndi 1% motsatira.

Otsatsa 20 padziko lonse lapansi adakhalabe kalabu yokhayo, osalola mamembala atsopano kuti alowe nawo: kukula kwawo kunali kogwirizana ndi kukula kwa msika, ngakhale Top-5 (DHL Global Forwarding, Kuehe + Nagel, DB Schenker, Expeditors). Int'l ndi Panalpina) monga gulu adaposa anzawo pamlingo (+ 16% vs + 14%). GSA idachita bwino kwambiri ku Asia Pacific (+ 15% kukula kwa voliyumu), Europe (+ 12%) ndi MESA (+ 11%).

Mwa mizinda yayikulu 50 yoyambira, anayi adalemba kukula kopitilira 20%: Hanoi (wotsogolera ndi 25.5%), Brussels, Colombo ndi Ho Chi Minh City. Hong Kong idakhalabe chiyambi chathu cha Nr 1, ikukula 16%. Mwa zoyambira 10 zapamwamba, Amsterdam ndi Los Angeles ndi omwe akuwonetsa kukula kocheperako kuposa avareji yapadziko lonse lapansi. Pakati pa malo akuluakulu, Doha (otsogolera ndi 42%), Shanghai, Osaka, Hanoi, Mexico City, Chennai ndi Campinas onse adakulitsa mavoliyumu awo omwe akubwera ndi oposa 20%.

Magawo amabizinesi onse amagulu apandege amakhalabe okhazikika. Kupatulapo? Ndege zochokera ku Africa: pomwe mabizinesi ochokera kumadera awo adatsalira m'mbuyo, kukula kwawo kunali kokulirapo kuposa momwe magulu ena adakulira. Ndege zokhala ku Asia Pacific zidakula pang'ono kuposa pafupifupi mu 2017, pomwe ndege zochokera ku Europe, America ndi MESA zidatsalira m'mbuyo, ngakhale pang'ono, motero zidasiya gawo laling'ono la gawo lawo lonse la chitumbuwa.

Ndi zinthu zabwino zomwe zikupitilira chaka chathachi, funso lalikulu ndilakuti izi zipitilira mpaka liti. Monga Mark Twain akuti adanenapo kale, ndizovuta kulosera, makamaka zamtsogolo ...