Kuneneratu kwa IATA kwa ndege zapadziko lonse lapansi mu 2019 sikuli bwino pazifukwa zomwe zalembedwa

International Air Transport Association (IATA) yalengeza za kutsika kwa 2019 pamakampani oyendetsa ndege padziko lonse lapansi kukhala phindu la $ 28 biliyoni (kuchokera $35.5 biliyoni zoneneratu mu Disembala 2018). Kumeneku ndikutsikanso pa phindu la msonkho la 2018 lomwe IATA likuyerekeza $30 biliyoni (yanenedwanso).

Mabizinesi amakampani a ndege afika poipa chifukwa cha kukwera kwa mitengo yamafuta komanso kufooka kwa malonda padziko lonse lapansi. Mu 2019 ndalama zonse zikuyembekezeka kukwera ndi 7.4%, kupitilira kukwera kwa 6.5%. Zotsatira zake, malire akuyembekezeka kufinyidwa mpaka 3.2% (kuchokera pa 3.7% mu 2018). Phindu pa aliyense wokwera lidzatsika chimodzimodzi mpaka $ 6.12 (kuchokera ku $ 6.85 mu 2018).

"Chaka chino chikhala chaka chakhumi motsatizana ndi bizinesi yandege. Koma m'mphepete mwa nyanja akuphwanyidwa chifukwa cha kukwera mtengo kwa zinthu zonse - kuphatikizapo antchito, mafuta, ndi zomangamanga. Kupikisana kolimba pakati pamakampani oyendetsa ndege kumapangitsa kuti zokolola zisachuluke. Kufooketsa kwa malonda apadziko lonse lapansi kuyenera kupitilira pamene nkhondo yamalonda ya US-China ikukulirakulira. Izi zimakhudza kwambiri bizinesi yonyamula katundu, koma kuchuluka kwa anthu okwera kumatha kukhudzidwanso pamene mikangano ikukwera. Ma Airlines apezabe phindu chaka chino, koma palibe ndalama zosavuta kupanga, "atero a Alexandre de Juniac, Director General ndi CEO wa IATA.

Mu 2019, kubweza ndalama zomwe adazipeza kuchokera kundege zikuyembekezeka kukhala 7.4% (kutsika kuchokera pa 7.9% mu 2018). Ngakhale izi zikupitilira mtengo wapakati (woyerekeza pa 7.3%), buffer ndiyoonda kwambiri. Komanso, ntchito yofalitsa kukhazikika kwachuma m'makampani onse ndi theka lathunthu ndi kusiyana kwakukulu kwa phindu pakati pa machitidwe a ndege ku North America, Europe ndi Asia-Pacific ndi machitidwe a omwe ali ku Africa, Latin America ndi Middle East.

Nkhani yabwino ndiyakuti oyendetsa ndege asokoneza kayendedwe kake. Kutsika kwa malo amalonda sikugwetsanso makampaniwa muvuto lalikulu. Koma m'mikhalidwe yamakono, kupambana kwakukulu kwa makampani - kupanga phindu kwa osunga ndalama omwe ali ndi phindu lokhazikika kuli pachiwopsezo. Ndege zidzapangabe phindu kwa osunga ndalama mu 2019 ndikubweza mtengo wapamwamba, koma basi, "atero de Juniac.

Mtengo:

• Mtengo wokwera wamafuta kuchokera ku 2018 ($ 71.6 / mbiya Brent) upitilira mu 2019 ndi mtengo wapakati wa $70.00 / mbiya Brent ikuyembekezeka. Izi ndi 27.5% kuposa $ 54.9 / mbiya Brent mu 2017. Ndalama zamafuta zidzawerengera 25% ya ndalama zogwirira ntchito (kuchokera ku 23.5% mu 2018).
• Mitengo yopanda mafuta ikuyembekezeka kukwera mpaka masenti 39.5 pa kilomita imodzi yomwe ilipo kuchokera pa masenti 39.2, chifukwa cha kuchuluka kwa ntchito, zomangamanga ndi zina.
• Ndalama zonse zikuyembekezeka kukwera 7.4% mpaka $822 biliyoni.

Zopindulitsa:

• Ndalama zonse sizikuyenda ndi kukwera kwa mtengo. Kwa 2019, ndalama zonse za $ 865 biliyoni zikuyembekezeka (+ 6.5% pa 2018).

Katundu:

• Pambuyo pakuchita kwapadera mu 2017 (+ 9.7% kukula), kukula kwa katundu kunatsika kufika pa 3.4% mu 2018. Akuyembekezeka kukhala osasunthika mu 2019 ndi katundu wa matani 63.1 miliyoni (matani 63.3 miliyoni mu 2018) chifukwa cha zotsatira za mitengo yokwera pazamalonda.
• Zokolola zonyamula katundu zikuyembekezeka kukhala zotsika mu 2019 pambuyo pakusintha kwa 12.3% mu 2018, pomwe kuchuluka kwa katundu kumatsika kwambiri, komanso kuchuluka kwazomwe zimafunidwa.

Wokwera:

• Kukula kofunikira kwa apaulendo kukuyembekezeka kukhala kolimba kuposa katundu. Izi zili choncho chifukwa kukula kwa GDP padziko lonse lapansi kukuyembekezeka kukhalabe kolimba pa 2.7%, ngakhale pang'onopang'ono kuposa mu 2018 (3.1%). Maboma ndi mabanki apakati ayankha kuti kuchepa kwachuma kukuchulukirachulukira ndi ndondomeko zothandizira, zomwe zikupereka kufooka kwa malonda. Koma kukula kwachuma ndi ndalama zapakhomo zidzakula pang'onopang'ono, chifukwa chake kuchuluka kwa anthu okwera pamakilomita okwera, akuyembekezeka kukula ndi 5.0% (kutsika kuchokera pa 7.4% mu 2018). Ndege zayankha kukukula pang'onopang'ono pochepetsa kukula kwa mphamvu mpaka 4.7% (ASKs).
• Chiwerengero chonse cha okwera chikuyembekezeka kukwera mpaka 4.6 biliyoni (kuchokera pa 4.4 biliyoni mu 2018).
• Zokolola za apaulendo zikuyembekezeka kukhalabe zotsika mu 2019 pambuyo pa kugwa kwa 2.1% mu 2018.

Malowedwe andalama:

• Ndalama zaulere, zomwe zimathandiza kuti osunga ndalama azilipiridwa komanso kuti ngongole zichepetse, zikuyembekezeka kutha pamlingo wamakampani chifukwa ndalama zochokera kuntchito zidzachepetsedwa chifukwa chakukula kwapang'onopang'ono komanso mtengo wokwera. Ngongole ndi zopeza, zomwe zidatsika kwambiri zikuyamba kukweranso.
• Avereji yangongole ndi zolandila zamakampani a ndege ku Europe ndi kumpoto kwa America sali patali kuposa milingo yomwe mabungwe owerengera ndalama amapeza, zomwe zimapereka chitetezo pakagwa vuto la bizinesi. Africa, Middle East ndi Latin America akadali ndi ngongole zambiri (nthawi 6-7 zomwe amapeza pachaka) zomwe zimawapangitsa kukhala pachiwopsezo cha kusokonekera kwa ndalama (zowonjezereka) kapena kukwera kwa chiwongola dzanja.

Zowopsa:

• Zowopsa zapansi ndizofunika kwambiri. Kusakhazikika pazandale komanso kutha kwa mikangano sikuthandiza kuyenda pandege. Chofunikira kwambiri ndikuchulukirachulukira kwa njira zodzitetezera komanso kuchuluka kwa nkhondo zamalonda.
• Pamene nkhondo yazamalonda ya US-China ikukulirakulira, zoopsa zomwe zachitika posachedwa kumakampani onyamula katundu omwe akukumana nazo kale zikuwonjezeka. Ndipo, pomwe kuchuluka kwa magalimoto okwera kukukulirakulira, zovuta zakukulira kwa ubale wamalonda zitha kuchulukira ndikuchepetsa kufunikira.

“Ndege zimafuna malire otseguka kwa anthu ndi malonda. Palibe amene amapambana kunkhondo zamalonda, mfundo zoteteza kapena zodzipatula. Koma aliyense amapindula ndi kukula kwa kulumikizana. Kudalirana kwapadziko lonse kophatikizana kuyenera kukhala njira yopitira patsogolo, "adatero de Juniac.

Regional Roundup

Madera onse akuyembekeza kuchepetsedwa kwa phindu kupatula North America ndi Latin America. Kusiyana kwa zigawo ndi kwakukulu.

North America Onyamula adzapereka ndalama zolimba kwambiri ndi phindu la msonkho la $ 15 biliyoni (kuchokera pa $ 14.5 biliyoni mu 2018). Izi zikuyimira phindu lalikulu la $ 14.77 pa munthu aliyense wokwera, zomwe ndi kusintha kwakukulu kuchokera zaka 7 zapitazo ($ 2.3 mu 2012). Mphepete mwa Net, zomwe zanenedweratu pa 5.5%, zatsika kuchokera ku milingo ya 2018 chifukwa chakukwera mtengo wamafuta omwe amayembekezeredwa komanso kuchepa kwa kukula. Zochepa zochepa m'derali zakhala zikuthandizidwa ndi kuphatikizika, kuthandizira kusunga zinthu zonyamula katundu (okwera + katundu) pamwamba pa 65%, ndi zowonjezera, zomwe zimachepetsa mphamvu yamtengo wapatali wamafuta, kusunga zinthu zowonongeka mpaka 59.5%.

European ndege zidzapereka phindu la $ 8.1 biliyoni (kutsika kuchokera ku $ 9.4 biliyoni mu 2018). Izi zikuyimira chiwongola dzanja cha $6.75 pa munthu aliyense wokwera ndi malire a 3.7% -onsewa ndi zotsatira zachiwiri zamphamvu zamakampani, koma zochepera zomwe onyamula North America amapeza. Zowonongeka za Breakeven ndizokwera kwambiri pa 70.2%, zomwe zimayambitsidwa ndi zokolola zochepa chifukwa cha mpikisano wothamanga kwambiri wa ndege, ndalama zoyendetsera bwino, komanso zomangamanga zosagwira ntchito. Mu 2019, mwachitsanzo, kuchedwetsa kasamalidwe ka ndege panjira kudakwera mpaka mphindi 19.1 miliyoni. Europe ilinso limodzi mwa madera omwe ali pachiwopsezo cha malonda ofooka padziko lonse lapansi ndipo izi zawononga chiyembekezo chaka chino.

Asia-Pacific ndege zidzapereka phindu la $ 6.0 biliyoni (kutsika kuchokera ku $ 7.7 biliyoni mu 2018). Izi zikuyimira phindu lalikulu kwa wokwera $ 3.51 ndi malire a 2.3%. Derali likuwonetsa magwiridwe antchito osiyanasiyana. Kuwerengera pafupifupi 40% ya magalimoto onyamula katundu wapadziko lonse lapansi kumapangitsa derali kukhala lofooka kwambiri pazamalonda padziko lonse lapansi, komanso kuti, kuphatikiza ndi mtengo wokwera wamafuta, ndikufinya phindu la zigawo.

Middle East ndege zipereka ndalama zokwana $ 1.1 biliyoni (zoyipa pang'ono kuposa zomwe zidatayika $ 1.0 biliyoni mu 2018). Izi zikufanana ndi kutayika kwa $ 5.01 pa wokwera aliyense komanso malire olakwika (-1.9%). Derali lakumana ndi zovuta zazikulu m'zaka zaposachedwa, kudera labizinesi komanso kumitundu yamabizinesi. Makampani oyendetsa ndege kumeneko akudutsa njira yosinthira ndipo ndandanda yolengezedwa ikuwonetsa kuchepa kwakukulu kwa kukula kwa anthu mu 2019. Mayendedwe akuyenda bwino tsopano koma kuipiraipira kwamabizinesi akuyembekezeka kukulitsa kutayika mu 2019.

Latin America ndege zipereka ndalama zokwana $0.2 biliyoni. Izi zikuwonetsa kusintha pang'ono kuchokera pakutayika kwa $ 0.5 biliyoni mu 2018, popeza kuyambiranso kwachuma ku Brazil kukuchepetsa mitengo yamafuta. Ndi phindu la $ 0.50 pa wokwera aliyense, malire amderali akuyembekezeka kukhala ochepa 0.4%.

African ndege zidzapereka ndalama zokwana madola 0.1 biliyoni (zosasintha kuchokera ku 2018), kupitirizabe kufooka m'chaka chake chachinayi. Wokwera aliyense wonyamula akuyembekezeka kuwononga onyamula $ 1.54, zomwe zimatsogolera ku -1.0% malire. Zinthu zolemetsa za Breakeven ndizochepa, chifukwa zokolola zimakwera pang'ono kuposa avareji ndipo mtengo wake ndi wotsika. Komabe, ndege zochepa m'derali zimatha kukwaniritsa katundu wokwanira, zomwe zimakhala zotsika kwambiri padziko lonse pa 60.7% mu 2018. Zonsezi, ntchito zamakampani zikuyenda bwino, koma pang'onopang'ono.

Chigawo	Kukula kwa Kufuna (%)		Kukula kwa Mphamvu (%)		Pax Load Factor (%)		Phindu Lonse ($ biliyoni)		Phindu/Wokwera ($)
	2018	2019	2018	2019	2018	2019	2018	2019	2018	2019
Global	7.4	5.0	6.9	4.7	81.9	82.1	30.0	28.0	6.85	6.12
kumpoto kwa Amerika	5.3	4.3	4.9	4.1	83.9	84.0	14.5	15.0	14.66	14.77
Europe	7.5	4.9	6.6	5.6	84.6	84.0	9.4	8.1	8.20	6.75
Asia-Pacific	9.5	6.3	8.8	5.7	81.5	82.0	7.7	6.0	4.74	3.51
Middle East	5.0	2.0	5.9	0.6	74.5	75.5	-1.0	-1.1	-4.46	-5.01
Latini Amerika	7.0	6.2	7.3	5.1	81.6	82.5	-0.5	0.2	-1.65	0.50
Africa	6.1	4.3	4.4	3.7	71.5	71.9	-0.1	-0.1	-1.09	-1.54

 

Bizinesi Ya Ufulu

"Ndege ndi ntchito yaufulu. Kwa apaulendo 4.6 biliyoni ndi ufulu wawo kufufuza, kupanga bizinesi, kapena kuyanjananso ndi abwenzi ndi abale. Phindu lazachuma la izi ndi ntchito 65 miliyoni komanso kulimbikitsa chuma chapadziko lonse cha $2.7 trillion. Mayendedwe a ndege akukula moyenera kuti akwaniritse izi. Kuchokera ku 2020, mwachitsanzo, makampaniwa akwaniritsa kukula kwa carbon-neutral. Ndipo izi zili panjira yopita ku cholinga chofuna kuchepetsa mpweya woipa mpaka theka la 2005 pofika chaka cha 2050. Tatsimikiza mtima kupereka mgwirizano wokhazikika wapadziko lonse kudzera mu ndege, "adatero de Juniac.

Zina mwazizindikiro zazikulu zakulumikizana kwapadziko lonse lapansi ndi monga:

• Avereji ya 2019 yobwereranso ndege (isanaperekedwe ndi msonkho) ikuyembekezeka kukhala $317 (madola a 2018), omwe ndi 61% pansi pamilingo ya 1998 atasintha kukwera kwa inflation. Ilinso $ 10 yotsika kuposa mu 2018 kwenikweni.
• Avereji ya mitengo yonyamula ndege mu 2019 akuyembekezeka kukhala $ 1.86 / kg (madola a 2018) omwe ndi 62% kugwa pamasamba a 1998.
• Chiwerengero cha mayendedwe oyenda pandege chikuyembekezeka kukwera mpaka 58,000 mu 2019, kuchokera 52,000 mu 2014.
• Ndalama zapadziko lonse lapansi pazokopa alendo zothandizidwa ndi mayendedwe apandege zikuyembekezeka kukula ndi 7.8% mu 2019 mpaka $ 909 biliyoni.
• Ndege zikuyembekezeka kubweretsa ndege zatsopano zopitilira 1,770 mu 2019, zambiri zomwe zilowa m'malo mwa ndege zakale komanso zosagwiritsa ntchito mafuta ambiri. Izi zidzakulitsa zombo zamalonda zapadziko lonse lapansi ndi 3.67% mpaka ndege zopitilira 30,697. Izi zithandiza kuti mafuta aziyenda bwino ndi 1.7% mpaka 22.4 malita pa 100 matani a kilomita.