Ngakhale kuti posachedwapa lipoti la quarterly kuchokera ku European Travel Commission (ETC) ikuwonetsa manambala oyipa, izi zikuwonedwabe ngati njira ina yochira. Kodi izi zingatheke bwanji?
Mu 2022, alendo obwera kumayiko ena obwera ku Europe akuyembekezeka kukhala 30% pansi pa ma voliyumu a 2019, mothandizidwa ndi maulendo apanyumba komanso oyenda pang'ono. Maulendo apakhomo akuyembekezeka kuchira kwathunthu mu 2022, pomwe maulendo apadziko lonse lapansi sakuyenera kupitilira milingo ya 2019 mpaka 2025.
Kodi izi zikuwonetsa bwanji kulimba mtima kwa zokopa alendo ku Europe?
Mwachidule, zikuyembekezeredwa kuti zokopa alendo ku Europe zipitiliza kuchira mu 2022, ngakhale pang'onopang'ono kuposa momwe tinkayembekezera. Lipoti la ETC limayang'anira momwe mliri wa COVID-19 ulili komanso momwe dziko likuvutikira, ndipo ngakhale akukhalabe m'malo olakwika, zomwe zachitika chaka ndi chaka za Q1 2022 zidawonetsa kuti m'malo onse operekera malipoti, ofika akuyerekeza kuti ndi 43. % kutsika pamaziko olemedwa ndi 2019.
Uku ndikuwongolera kwenikweni kuposa kuchepa kwa 60% komwe kunachitika m'gawo lapitalo. Kubwereranso kwachangu kutengera deta mpaka February kudanenedwa ndi Serbia (-11%) ndi Turkey (-12%). Malo ena omwe akuchira mwachangu kutengera zomwe zidafika pa February-March 2022 ndi Bulgaria (-18%), Austria (-33%), Spain ndi Monaco (onse -34%), ndi Croatia (-37%).
Luís Araújo, Purezidenti wa ETC, a Luis Araujo, adati: "Mkati mwa mliriwu, gawo lazokopa alendo ku Europe lakhala laluso pothana ndi kusatsimikizika komanso zovuta. Gawoli likuchira pang'onopang'ono ku COVID-19 ndipo pali chifukwa chokhalira ndi chiyembekezo. Komabe, zokopa alendo ku Europe ziyenera kukhalabe ndi mphamvu izi chaka chonse pomwe Europe ikupitilizabe kuthana ndi vuto lalikulu la mkangano womwe ukupitilira ku Russia ndi Ukraine. ETC ikupempha mabungwe a EU kuti apitirize kupereka thandizo la ndalama zokwanira komanso panthawi yake komanso thandizo lina ku gawoli, makamaka kumadera omwe amadalira kwambiri zokopa alendo ochokera ku Russia ndi Ukraine. "
Zotsatira za COVID-19 zikuchepa
Alendo ochokera kumayiko ena akuwonetsa kuti ali okonzeka kuyenda ndikupita ku Europe. Mayiko ambiri, monga Spain, France, ndi Italy, achotsa kufunikira koyezetsa COVID asanapite, malinga ndi katemera. Chifukwa cha izi, Western Europe ikuyembekezeka kukhala dera lomwe likuchita bwino kwambiri padziko lonse lapansi chaka chino, ngakhale 24% pansi pamilingo ya 2019.
Ochita bwino kwambiri ndi United States pamisika yonse yanthawi yayitali. Kukula kwapakati pachaka kuchokera ku US kupita ku Europe kukuyembekezeka kukhala 33.6% muzaka 5 za 2021-2026, ndikuwonjezeka kwachangu kwambiri ku Northern Europe (+ 41.5%). Ponseponse, zikadali choncho kuti maulendo opitilira 2022 odutsa pakati pa US ndi Europe akhale amodzi mwazinthu zomwe zimathandizira kuti gawo loyenda ku Europe libwererenso.
Ku China, omwe nthawi zambiri amawononga ndalama zambiri padziko lonse lapansi, sipanakhalepo zizindikiro zosonyeza kuti alendo aku China omwe abwera kudzabwerera ku mliri usanachitike pomwe dzikolo likupirira kufalikira kwamitundu yosiyanasiyana ya Omicron ku Shanghai ndi mizinda ina yayikulu. Akuluakulu aboma abwezanso kuyimitsidwa kokhazikika komanso kuyezetsa kovomerezeka kuti athetse kufalikira kwa kachilomboka, ndipo opitilira 50% a komwe amakapereka malipoti atsika ndi 90% mwa obwera alendo aku China poyerekeza ndi 2019.
Zotsatira za Kuukira kwa Ukraine ndi Russia
Monga zikuyembekezeredwa, a kuukira kwa Russia ku Ukraine akuloseredwa kubweretsa kuchepetsedwa kwa maulendo otuluka m’maiko onsewo, ndipo kuwonjezera apo, maiko apafupi nawonso adzavutika ndi ziyambukiro zoipa za mkangano waudani umenewu. Chifukwa cha izi, kuchira kwa Kum'mawa kwa Europe kudabwezeredwa ku 2025, pomwe omwe akufika tsopano akuyembekezeka kutsika ndi 43% mu 2022 poyerekeza ndi 2019.
Zikuyembekezeka kuti Cyprus, Montenegro, Latvia, Finland, Estonia, ndi Lithuania, ndizomwe zidzakhudzidwe kwambiri ndi kuwukiraku, chifukwa apa ndi pomwe anthu aku Russia adapanga pafupifupi 10% ya maulendo obwera mkati mwa 2019. Komanso, alendo aku Russia amakhala nthawi zambiri. owononga ndalama zambiri akamayenda, kotero kuti ndalama zomwe amawononga chifukwa chosowa malo zidzakhudza kwambiri ndalama zoyendera alendo. Mu 2019, ndalama zaku Russia zidathandizira 34% ya ndalama zonse ku Montenegro, 25% ku Kupro ndi 16% ku Latvia.
Kulumikizana kwa ndege zaku Europe ndi Asia kukukhudzidwa chifukwa cha kutsekedwa kwa ndege zaku Russia, Ukraine, Moldova, ndi Belarus kupita kumayiko ambiri akumadzulo kwa Europe. Pamwamba pazovuta zapaulendo, mkangano wa Russia ndi Ukraine ukukhudza chuma ndi zilango ku Russia zomwe zikupangitsa kuti mtengo wamafuta a jet ukwere zomwe zidzakhudzanso maulendo apa ndege.
Pakafukufuku waposachedwa wopangidwa ndi MMGY Travel Intelligence, 62% ya apaulendo aku US omwe akukonzekera kukacheza ku Europe adanenanso nkhawa za nkhondo yaku Ukraine yomwe ikufalikira kumayiko oyandikana nawo monga zomwe zikusokoneza mapulani. Nkhawa iyi ndiyokwera kawiri kuposa nkhawa za COVID-19.
ZOMWE MUNGACHITE PA NKHANIYI:
- In the case of China, typically the biggest travel spenders on the planet, there have been no immediate signs of Chinese tourist arrivals returning to pre-pandemic levels as the country is enduring a severe outbreak of the Omicron variant in Shanghai and other big cities.
- The ETC report monitors the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic as well as current economic and geopolitical headwinds, and despite remaining in negative territory, year-to-date data for Q1 2022 showed that across all reporting destinations, arrivals are estimated to be 43% lower on a weighted basis relative to 2019.
- It is anticipated that Cyprus, Montenegro, Latvia, Finland, Estonia, and Lithuania, will be the most impacted by the invasion, as this is where Russians made up at least 10% of total inbound travel in 2019.
