DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (eTN) - Akatswiri omwe adachita nawo msonkhano wa Arabian Hotel Investment Conference, womwe unachitika kuyambira pa Meyi 3 mpaka 4 ku Madinat Jumeirah ku Dubai, akukhulupirira kuti kuchepa kwapadziko lonse sikutha ndipo kutsika kwamitengo padziko lonse lapansi kudzachepa, ndi kuti India ndi China adzachepetsa zotsatira za kusokonekera kwa chuma cha dziko.

Ngakhale kuti nkhawa ikukulirakulira chifukwa cha kugwa kwachuma, kukwera kwa mitengo komanso kukwera kwa mitengo yamafuta, misika monga India ndi China ikhalabe yolimba. Ndithudi, iwo adzatsogolera, akatswiri amalangiza.

Chiyembekezo chakuchulukirachulukira kwachuma chapadziko lonse chinafotokozedwa ndi katswiri wazachuma komanso wapampando wa Oxus Investments, Surjit Bhalla. Iye ananena kuti pali chilichonse chosonyeza kuti ngakhale ku United States kuli mavuto a nyumba ndi zachuma, pali mwayi wopewa kugwa kwachuma. Malingana ndi iye, izi zikanakhala chifukwa cha kukula kwakukulu ku India, komanso ku China.

China ndi India asintha kwambiri ndikusintha misika ku Asia, ikukula magawo asanu mpaka khumi pachaka pa munthu aliyense. Kukula kopanda mzere kwa anthu apakati kwasintha maiko onse omwe 50 mpaka 60 peresenti ya anthu azaka za m'ma 80 anali osauka kwambiri, okhala ndi $ 1 patsiku pansi pamlingo wopezera zofunika pa moyo. Pambuyo pake, malipiro a tsiku ndi tsiku adakwera pang'onopang'ono kuchoka pa $2 patsiku kufika pa $4 mpaka $5 m'zaka khumi.

Masiku ano, gulu lapakati la India lili pampando woyendetsa. "Dziko silinazindikire chifukwa kuchuluka kwa zinthu zomwe anthu amadya kunali kotsika. Sizinali kanthu komwe osunga ndalama padziko lonse lapansi anali kuda nkhawa nazo pomwe mitengo yapadziko lonse inali $8 patsiku kwa omwe sanali osauka kumayiko akumadzulo. Masiku ano, magulu ankhondo aku India apakati akudzitamandira kuti akupanga chuma chambiri chomwe chathawa umphawi. Ngakhale sizikhudza mfundo za boma, zimafuna kugwira ntchito molingana zomwe zimapangitsa boma kuchitapo kanthu ndi zofuna za anthu apakati, "atero Bhalla.

India ndi anthu apakati ku China masiku ano ndi osauka kwambiri m'mayiko otukuka, kuchokera ku umphaŵi wa PPP $ 1.08 (1993) poyerekeza ndi osauka kwambiri, otukuka 'PPP $7.77. Mzere wapakati unali pafupifupi PPP $3700 pa munthu aliyense pachaka m'mitengo ya 2007.

Mongofuna kudzikonda, gulu lazachumali limakhulupirira kuti zabwino zamisika ndi njira yokhayo yotukukira. "Apakati amakhulupirira ufulu wa katundu, malonda aulere, malamulo a masewera ndi zotsutsana ndi ziphuphu," anawonjezera Bhalla.

Mu 2008, pafupifupi 14.2 peresenti ya Amwenye 400 miliyoni ndi apakati. Chiŵerengero cha Investment ku GDP chinakula kwambiri ndi 2000 peresenti, kusonyeza kuti kusintha m'zaka zisanu zapitazi kukulitsa ndalama ndi 9.5 peresenti, ndalama zopulumutsira ndi 12 peresenti ndi kukula kwa 27 peresenti, Bhalla adatero.

Masiku ano anthu apakatikati ndi omwe amafunikira kwambiri opanga zomangamanga omwe ali ndi kufunikira kwakukulu kwa magetsi, misewu, eyapoti, madzi oyera, ukhondo, komanso zomangamanga, maphunziro ndi thanzi. Zomangamanga ku India ndi China zakula kwambiri, komabe, China siinapezeke ndi kuchuluka kwa zomangamanga monga India.

Zaka za m'ma 1950 zisanachitike, India ndi China zidatsika mpaka 8 peresenti. M'zaka za m'ma 80s, zaka zoposa 50 pambuyo pake, India ndi China anali kupanga 80 peresenti ya zokolola zapadziko lonse lapansi, ndipo India inali yopita patsogolo kuposa China. Inaposanso kukula kwa zomangamanga ku China m'zaka zapitazi ndi zaka zitatu mpaka zisanu zomwe zakhala zikumangidwa kwa mafakitale.

US idatenga 25 peresenti ya kukula kwa GDP padziko lonse lapansi, pomwe India ndi China onse pamodzi adatenga 20 peresenti. "Masiku ano, dziko la US latsika ndi 20 peresenti koma chuma cha India ndi China chawonjezeka kuwirikiza kawiri ndipo tsopano palimodzi chikuperekanso XNUMX peresenti," adatero Bhalla ndikuwonjezera kuti, "Izi zikutipatsa lingaliro la chifukwa chomwe zinthu zomwe zikuchitika pano sizingabweretse kugwa kwachuma padziko lonse lapansi. kapena kuvutika maganizo.”

Ananenanso za ziphuphu ku India; Komabe ziphuphu, monga misika iliyonse yomwe ikubwera komanso yomwe ikubwera (monga Vietnam, Russia ndi China) ikanakhalira, India salinso katangale wosagwira ntchito, koma ndi wothandiza. Kumayambiriro kwa chaka cha 2010, India idzakhala itaposa kukula kwachuma kwa misika yonse yomwe ikubwera GDP kuphatikizapo China.

Maboma amgwirizano akhala akuchitika ku India kuyambira 1989. Congress ndi atsogoleri a BJP ali ndi mavoti ochepera 50 peresenti. Ndi kudalirana kwa mayiko, boma silingawonongenso, adatero Bhalla.

Kusiya olamulira opanda mphamvu mwina ndi "chotsika" chakukula kwapakati ndi zomangamanga ku India (9-10 peresenti pachaka pakukula kwa mafakitale, poyerekeza ndi 6-8 peresenti ya China). Andale akasokoneza, imagwirabe ntchito monga mwanthawi zonse ndipo imakhala pafupi ndi zero chifukwa achepetsa mphamvu pakuwononga. Izi zimapangitsa kuti zikhale zokayikitsa kuti India ataya mwayi wampikisano kapena kukhala ndi chiwongola dzanja chenicheni kukwera kwambiri.

Komabe, adanenanso kuti ziphuphu sizikuchepa. “Tili ndi ziphuphu zosagwira ntchito bwino. Tili ndi ochita bwino, "adatero Bhalla ponena kuti anthu ake akuyenera kukonza mwachangu ngati alakwitsa potsatira njira yomwe ikupita patsogolo - popeza dziko likufuna kupita patsogolo, kusunga maphunziro pachimake kuti abweretse malingaliro abizinesi. ndi chilungamo kubwera mu msika wamphamvu.

India, adati, "ili pamalo abwino kwambiri omwe atha kukhala zaka khumi ndi ziwiri."

ZOMWE MUNGACHITE PA NKHANIYI:

Experts who attending the Arabian Hotel Investment Conference, held from May 3 to 4 at the Madinat Jumeirah in Dubai, believe the global slowdown won't last and the synchronized inflation rate around the world will subside, and that India and China will neutralize the effects of the meltdown in the world's economy.
“Today, the US has dropped to 20 percent but India and China economies have more than doubled and now together also contribute some 20 percent,” Bhalla said adding, “This gives us a hint as to why current circumstances will not result in global recession or depression.
The rapid non-linear development of the middle class has changed both nations whose 50 to 60 percent population in the ‘80s were absolutely poor, living on $1 per day below subsistence level.