Ndege zidadula zotayika mu 2022 ndikubwerera ku phindu mu 2023

Bungwe la International Air Transport Association (IATA) likuyembekeza kubwerera ku phindu lamakampani opanga ndege padziko lonse lapansi mu 2023 pomwe ndege zikupitilizabe kuchepetsa zotayika chifukwa cha mliri wa COVID-19 kubizinesi yawo mu 2022. 

• Mu 2023, ndege zikuyembekezeka kutumiza phindu laling'ono la $ 4.7 biliyoni - phindu la 0.6%. Ndi phindu loyamba kuyambira chaka cha 2019 pomwe phindu lamakampani linali $26.4 biliyoni (3.1% malire a phindu). 

• Mu 2022, zotayika zandege zikuyembekezeka kukhala $6.9 biliyoni (kuwongolera pakutayika kwa $9.7 biliyoni mu 2022 mu IATA mu June). Izi ndizabwino kwambiri kuposa kutayika kwa $ 42.0 biliyoni ndi $ 137.7 biliyoni zomwe zidachitika mu 2021 ndi 2020 motsatana.

"Kulimba mtima kwakhala chizindikiro cha ndege pamavuto a COVID-19. Pamene tikuyang'ana ku 2023, kuyambiranso kwachuma kudzakhala ndi phindu loyamba lamakampani kuyambira 2019. Uku ndikuchita bwino kwambiri poganizira kuchuluka kwa kuwonongeka kwachuma ndi zachuma komwe kumabwera chifukwa choletsa miliri yomwe boma idakhazikitsa. Koma phindu la $ 4.7 biliyoni pazopeza zamakampani zokwana $779 biliyoni likuwonetsanso kuti pali zambiri zoti zitheke kuyika bizinesi yapadziko lonse lapansi pazachuma. Ndege zambiri zimakhala ndi phindu lokwanira kukopa ndalama zomwe zimafunikira kuti zipititse patsogolo makampaniwa pomwe amawononga mpweya. Koma ena ambiri akulimbana ndi zifukwa zosiyanasiyana. Izi zikuphatikizapo malamulo ovuta, kukwera mtengo, ndondomeko zosagwirizana ndi boma, zomangamanga zosagwira ntchito komanso ndondomeko yamtengo wapatali yomwe mphotho zogwirizanitsa dziko lapansi sizigawidwa mofanana," adatero Willie Walsh. IATADirector General.

2022

Chiyembekezo chotukuka cha 2022 chimachokera makamaka chifukwa cha kulimbikitsidwa kwa zokolola komanso kuwongolera kokwera mtengo poyang'anizana ndi kukwera kwa mitengo yamafuta.

Zokolola za apaulendo zikuyembekezeka kukula ndi 8.4% (kuchokera pa 5.6% yomwe ikuyembekezeredwa mu June). Motsogozedwa ndi mphamvuyi, ndalama zokwera anthu zikuyembekezeka kukwera mpaka $438 biliyoni (kuchokera pa $239 biliyoni mu 2021).

Ndalama zonyamula katundu wandege zidathandizira kwambiri kuchepetsa zotayika ndi ndalama zomwe zikuyembekezeka kufika $201.4 biliyoni. Uku ndikuwongolera poyerekeza ndi zomwe zanenedweratu mu June, zomwe sizinasinthidwe kuchokera mu 2021, komanso kupitilira $ 100.8 biliyoni zomwe zidapezedwa mu 2019.

Ndalama zonse zikuyembekezeka kukula ndi 43.6% poyerekeza ndi 2021, kufika pafupifupi $727 biliyoni.

Zinthu zina zambiri zidasintha molakwika kutsatira kutsika kwa ziyembekezo za kukula kwa GDP (kuchokera pa 3.4% mu Juni mpaka 2.9%), ndikuchedwa kuchotsa ziletso za COVID-19 m'misika ingapo, makamaka China. Kunenedweratu kwa IATA kwa Juni kumayembekezera kuti kuchuluka kwa anthu okwera kudzafika 82.4% yamavuto asanachitike mu 2022, koma zikuwoneka kuti kukonzanso kwamakampani kudzafika 70.6% yamavuto asanachitike. Cargo, kumbali ina, ikuyembekezeka kupitilira milingo ya 2019 ndi 11.7%, koma izi zitha kusinthidwa kukhala 98.4% ya 2019.

Kumbali ya mtengo, mitengo ya mafuta a jet ikuyembekezeka kukhala pafupifupi $ 138.8 / mbiya pachaka, yokwera kwambiri kuposa $ 125.5 / mbiya yomwe ikuyembekezeka mu June. Izi zikuwonetsa kukwera kwamitengo yamafuta mokokomeza ndi kufalikira kwa jet crack komwe kuli kopitilira mbiri yakale. Ngakhale kufunikira kwapang'onopang'ono komwe kukupangitsa kuti achepetse kugwiritsa ntchito, izi zidakweza mtengo wamafuta pamsika kufika $222 biliyoni (kuposa $192 biliyoni yomwe ikuyembekezeka mu June).

"Kuti oyendetsa ndege adatha kuchepetsa kuwonongeka kwawo mu 2022, poyang'anizana ndi kukwera mtengo, kusowa kwa ogwira ntchito, kumenyedwa, kusokonekera kwa magwiridwe antchito m'malo ambiri ofunikira komanso kusatsimikizika kwachuma komwe kukukulirakulira kumalankhula zambiri za chikhumbo cha anthu komanso kufunikira kwa kulumikizana. Ndi misika ina yayikulu monga China ikusunga zoletsa kwanthawi yayitali kuposa momwe amayembekezera, ziwerengero zokwera zidatsika pang'ono poyembekezera. Titha chaka ndi pafupifupi 70% ya ma voliyumu okwera a 2019. Koma ndikukula kwa zokolola m'mabizinesi onyamula katundu ndi okwera, ndege zifika pachimake pakupanga phindu, "atero a Walsh.

2023

Mu 2023 makampani oyendetsa ndege akuyembekezeka kukhala opindulitsa. Ndege zikuyembekezeredwa kupeza phindu lapadziko lonse lapansi la $4.7 biliyoni pazopeza $779 biliyoni (0.6% net margin). Kusintha kumeneku kumabwera ngakhale kusatsimikizika kwachuma kukukulirakulira pomwe kukula kwa GDP padziko lonse lapansi kumatsika mpaka 1.3% (kuchokera 2.9% mu 2022).

"Ngakhale kusatsimikizika kwachuma, pali zifukwa zambiri zokhalira ndi chiyembekezo cha 2023. Kutsika kwamitengo yamafuta ndi kufunikira kopitilira muyeso kuyenera kuthandizira kusungitsa ndalama pamene kukula kwamphamvu kukupitilira. Panthawi imodzimodziyo, ndi malire ochepetsetsa, ngakhale kusintha kochepa pamtundu uliwonse wamitunduyi kungathe kusintha malire kukhala gawo loipa. Kukhala tcheru ndi kusinthasintha ndizofunikira, "adatero Walsh.

Oyendetsa Main

Wokwera: Bizinesi yonyamula anthu ikuyembekezeka kupanga ndalama zokwana $522 biliyoni. Kufuna kwapaulendo kukuyembekezeka kufika 85.5% ya 2019 m'kati mwa 2023. Zambiri mwachiyembekezochi zimaganizira kusatsimikizika kwa mfundo za China Zero COVID zomwe zikulepheretsa misika yapakhomo ndi yapadziko lonse lapansi. Komabe, ziwerengero zokwera zikuyembekezeka kupitilira mabiliyoni anayi kwa nthawi yoyamba kuyambira 2019, pomwe apaulendo 4.2 biliyoni akuyembekezeka kuwuluka. Zokolola za apaulendo, komabe, zikuyembekezeka kufewetsa (-1.7%) chifukwa ndalama zocheperako zimaperekedwa kwa ogula, ngakhale kufunikira kwa okwera kumakula mwachangu (+ 21.1%) kuposa kuchuluka kwa okwera (+ 18.0%).

katundu: Misika yonyamula katundu ikuyembekezeka kukhala yowonjezereka mu 2023. Zopeza zikuyembekezeka kukhala $ 149.4 biliyoni, zomwe ndi $ 52 biliyoni zosakwana 2022 koma komabe $ 48.6 biliyoni yamphamvu kuposa 2019. Ndi kusatsimikizika kwachuma, katundu wonyamula katundu akuyembekezeka kuchepa mpaka matani 57.7 miliyoni , kuchokera pachimake cha matani 65.6 miliyoni mu 2021. Pamene mphamvu ya mimba ikukula mogwirizana ndi kubwezeretsanso m'misika ya anthu, zokolola zikuyembekezeka kutengapo gawo lalikulu. IATA ikuyembekeza kugwa kwa 22.6% pa zokolola za katundu, makamaka kumapeto kwa chaka pamene zotsatira za njira zoziziritsa za inflation zikuyembekezeka kuluma. Kuyika kuchepa kwa zokolola, zokolola zidakula ndi 52.5% mu 2020, 24.2% mu 2021 ndi 7.2% mu 2022.

ndalama: Ndalama zonse zikuyembekezeka kukula ndi 5.3% mpaka $ 776 biliyoni. Kukula kumeneko kuyenera kukhala 1.8 peresenti pansi pa kukula kwa ndalama, motero kumathandizira kubwerera ku phindu. Mavuto a mtengo akadalipo kuchokera ku ntchito, luso ndi kuchepa kwa mphamvu. Mtengo wa zomangamanga nawonso ndiwodetsa nkhawa.

Komabe, mitengo yopanda mafuta ikuyembekezeka kutsika mpaka 39.8 cents/kilomita yomwe ilipo (kutsika kuchokera pa 41.7 cents/ATK mu 2022 ndipo pafupifupi kufanana ndi 39.2 cents/ATK yomwe idakwaniritsidwa mu 2019). Kupindula kwandege kukuyembekezeka kuyendetsa zinthu zonyamula anthu kufika pa 81.0%, kutsika pang'ono pa 82.6% yomwe idakwaniritsidwa mu 2019.

Mafuta onse omwe amagwiritsidwa ntchito mu 2023 akuyembekezeka kukhala $ 229 biliyoni - zosagwirizana ndi 30% yazowononga. Kuneneratu kwa IATA kudachokera pa Brent crude pa $92.3/mgolo (kutsika kuchokera pa avareji ya $103.2/mgolo mu 2022). Mafuta a Jet akuyembekezeka kukhala pafupifupi $ 111.9 / mbiya (kutsika kuchokera pa $ 138.8 / mbiya). Kutsika uku kukuwonetsa kukhazikika kwamafuta amafuta pambuyo pa kusokoneza koyambirira kwankhondo ku Ukraine. Mtengo wamafuta a jet (crack spread) umakhalabe pafupi ndi mbiri yakale.

Kuwopsa: Chikhalidwe chazachuma komanso chikhalidwe chamayiko chimapereka ziwopsezo zingapo zomwe zingachitike mu 2023. 

• Ngakhale zisonyezo zikuwonetsa kuti pakhoza kukhala kuchepeka kwa chiwongola dzanja cholimbana ndi kukwera kwa mitengo kuyambira koyambirira kwa 2023, chiwopsezo choti chuma china chigwere pansi chidakalipo. Kutsika kotereku kungakhudze kufunikira kwa ntchito zonyamula anthu komanso zonyamula katundu. Komabe, zitha kubwera ndi kuchepetsedwa kwina kwamitengo yotsika yamafuta. 

• Malingaliro akuyembekeza kutsegulidwanso kwapang'onopang'ono kwa China kumayendedwe apadziko lonse lapansi ndikuchepetsa zoletsa zapakhomo za COVID-19 pang'onopang'ono kuyambira theka lachiwiri la 2023.

• Ngati zitakhala zakuthupi, malingaliro owonjezera zolipiritsa za zomangamanga kapena misonkho kuti zithandizire kukhazikika zitha kuwononganso phindu mu 2023. 

"Ntchito ya oyang'anira ndege ikhalabe yovuta chifukwa kuyang'anitsitsa kusatsimikizika kwachuma kumakhala kovuta. Nkhani yabwino ndiyakuti oyendetsa ndege apanga zosinthika pamabizinesi awo kuti athe kuthana ndi kukwera kwachuma komanso kutsika komwe kumabweretsa kufunikira. Phindu la ndege ndi lochepa kwambiri. Wokwera aliyense wonyamula akuyembekezeka kupereka pafupifupi $ 1.11 ku phindu lamakampani. M'madera ambiri padziko lapansi ndizochepa kwambiri kuposa zomwe zimafunika kugula kapu ya khofi. Oyendetsa ndege akuyenera kukhala tcheru kuti awonjezere misonkho kapena chindapusa. Ndipo tiyenera kusamala makamaka ndi omwe amapangidwa m'dzina la kukhazikika. Kudzipereka kwathu ndikuchepetsa mpweya wa CO2 pofika chaka cha 2050. Tidzafunika zonse zomwe titha kugwiritsa ntchito, kuphatikiza zolimbikitsira boma, kuti tipeze ndalama zosinthira mphamvuyi. Misonkho yochulukirapo komanso zolipiritsa zokwera sizingapindule, "adatero Walsh.

Regional Round Up

Madera onse azachuma akupitilirabe kuyenda bwino kuyambira pakuzama kwa mliri womwe udawonongeka mu 2020. North America ndi dera lokhalo lomwe lidabwereranso ku phindu mu 2022, kutengera zomwe tayerekeza. Madera awiri adzalumikizana ndi North America pankhaniyi mu 2023: Europe ndi Middle East, pomwe Latin America, Africa, ndi Asia-Pacific zitsalirabe.

Onyamula ku North America akuyembekezeka kuzindikira phindu la $ 9.9 biliyoni mu 2022 ndi $ 11.4 biliyoni mu 2023. Mu 2023, kukula kwa kufunikira kwa okwera ndi 6.4% kukuyembekezeka kupitilira kukula kwa 5.5%. Pachaka, derali likuyembekezeka kutumizira 97.2% yazovuta zomwe zisanachitike ndi 98.9% yazovuta zomwe zidachitika kale.

Onyamula katundu m'derali adapindula ndi zoletsa zochepa komanso zazifupi kuposa mayiko ena ambiri. Izi zidakweza msika waukulu waku US, komanso maulendo apadziko lonse lapansi, makamaka kudutsa nyanja ya Atlantic.

Onyamula ku Europe akuyembekezeka kuwona kutayika kwa $ 3.1 biliyoni mu 2022, ndi phindu la $ 621 miliyoni mu 2023. Mu 2023, kukula kofunikira kwa okwera 8.9% kukuyembekezeka kupitilira kukula kwa mphamvu kwa 6.1%. Pazaka zapitazi, derali likuyembekezeka kupatsa 88.7% yazovuta zomwe zisanachitike ndi 89.1% yazovuta zomwe zidachitika kale.

Nkhondo ya ku Ukraine yachepetsa ntchito za ena mwa onyamula m'derali. Kusokonekera kwa ntchito m'malo ena akukontinenti kukuthetsedwa, koma chipwirikiti cha ogwira ntchito chikupitilira m'malo osiyanasiyana.

Onyamula Asia-Pacific akuyembekezeka kutumiza kutayika kwa $ 10.0 biliyoni mu 2022, ndikuchepetsa kutayika kwa $ 6.6 biliyoni mu 2023. Mu 2023, kukula kwa kufunikira kwa okwera 59.8% kukuyembekezeka kupitilira kukula kwa 47.8%. Pachaka, derali likuyembekezeka kutumizira 70.8% yazovuta zomwe zisanachitike ndi 75.5% yazovuta zomwe zidachitika kale.

Asia-Pacific idayimitsidwa kwambiri ndi kukhudzidwa kwa mfundo zaku China za zero COVID paulendo ndipo kutayika kwa derali kumasokonekera kwambiri ndi magwiridwe antchito a ndege zaku China omwe akukumana ndi kukhudzidwa kwa mfundoyi m'misika yapakhomo komanso yapadziko lonse lapansi. Poganizira mosamalitsa za kuchepekedwa kwa ziletso ku China mkati mwa theka lachiwiri la 2023, tikuyembekeza kufunikira kokhazikika komwe kungayambitse kubweza mwachangu chifukwa cha mayendedwe awa. Mayendedwe am'derali amalandira chilimbikitso chachikulu kuchokera kumisika yopindulitsa yonyamula katundu wa ndege, momwe ndi osewera wamkulu kwambiri.

Onyamula Middle East akuyembekezeka kutumiza kutayika kwa $ 1.1 biliyoni mu 2022, ndi phindu la $ 268 miliyoni mu 2023. Mu 2023, kukula kwa kufunikira kwa okwera 23.4% kukuyembekezeka kupitilira kukula kwa 21.2%. Pachaka, derali likuyembekezeka kutumizira 97.8% yazovuta zomwe zidachitika kale ndi 94.5% yazovuta zomwe zidachitika kale.

Derali lapindula ndi njira zina zosinthira chifukwa cha nkhondo ya ku Ukraine, komanso makamaka chifukwa chofuna kuyenda pang'onopang'ono pogwiritsa ntchito maukonde adziko lonse lapansi pomwe misika yapadziko lonse lapansi idatsegulidwanso.

Onyamula ku Latin America akuyembekezeka kutumiza kutayika kwa $ 2.0 biliyoni mu 2022, kutsika mpaka $ 795 miliyoni mu 2023. Mu 2023, kukula kofunikira kwa okwera 9.3% kukuyembekezeka kupitilira kukula kwa 6.3%. Pachaka, derali likuyembekezeka kutumizira 95.6% yazovuta zomwe zidachitika kale ndi 94.2% yazovuta zomwe zidachitika kale.

Latin America yawonetsa chisangalalo mchaka chonsecho, makamaka chifukwa maiko ambiri adayamba kuchotsa ziletso zawo za COVID-19 kuyambira pakati pa chaka.

Onyamula aku Africa akuyembekezeka kutumiza kutayika kwa $ 638 miliyoni mu 2022, kutsika mpaka kutayika kwa $ 213 miliyoni mu 2023. Kukula kwapaulendo wa 27.4% kukuyembekezeka kupitilira kukula kwa 21.9%. Pachaka, derali likuyembekezeka kutumizira 86.3% yazovuta zomwe zisanachitike ndi 83.9% yazovuta zomwe zidachitika kale.

Afirika akukumana ndi zovuta zazikulu zachuma zomwe zawonjezera kusatetezeka kwa mayiko angapo ndikupangitsa kulumikizana kukhala kovuta kwambiri.

pansi Line

"Phindu lomwe likuyembekezeredwa mu 2023 ndilochepa kwambiri. Koma ndizofunika kwambiri kuti tatembenukira ku ngodya kuti tipeze phindu. Zovuta zomwe ndege zidzakumana nazo mu 2023, ngakhale zovuta, zidzagwera m'magawo athu. Makampaniwa apanga kuthekera kwakukulu kosinthira kusinthasintha kwachuma, zinthu zazikuluzikulu monga mitengo yamafuta, komanso zokonda zapaulendo. Tikuwona izi zikuwonetsedwa muzaka khumi zakulimbitsa phindu kutsatira 2008 Global Financial Crisis ndikutha ndi mliri. Chosangalatsa ndichakuti pali ntchito zambiri ndipo anthu ambiri ali ndi chidaliro choyenda ngakhale atakhala ndi vuto lazachuma, "adatero Walsh.

Apaulendo akupezerapo mwayi wobwerera kwa ufulu wawo woyenda. Kafukufuku waposachedwa wa IATA wa apaulendo m'misika 11 yapadziko lonse lapansi adawonetsa kuti pafupifupi 70% akuyenda mochuluka kapena kuposa momwe amachitira mliriwu usanachitike. Ndipo, ngakhale momwe chuma chikukhudzira 85% ya apaulendo, 57% alibe cholinga choletsa mayendedwe awo.

Kafukufuku yemweyo adawonetsanso gawo lofunikira lomwe apaulendo amawona makampani opanga ndege akuchita:

• 91% said that connectivity by air is critical to the economy
• 90% said that air travel is a necessity for modern life
• 87% said that air travel has a positive impact on societies, and
• Of the 57% familiar with the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), 91% understand that air transport is a key contributor