Unyolo wamtengo wapatali wa ndege

Bungwe la International Air Transport Association (IATA) ndi McKinsey & Company lidasindikiza kafukufuku wokhudzana ndi phindu pazambiri zandege zomwe zikuwonetsa kuti phindu limasiyana mosiyanasiyana malinga ndi gawo. Kafukufukuyu akuwonetsanso kuti pakuphatikiza, ndege zapaulendo sizigwira ntchito bwino pakubweza ndalama zomwe wobwereketsa angayembekezere.

Ngakhale kuti palibe njira yodziwikiratu yobwezeretsanso mwamsanga unyolo wamtengo wapatali, kafukufukuyu amatsimikizira kuti pali madera ena ofunikira-kuphatikizapo decarbonization ndi kugawana deta-komwe kugwirira ntchito limodzi ndi kugawana zolemetsa kudzapindulitsa onse omwe atenga nawo mbali.

Mfundo zazikuluzikulu za Kumvetsetsa Mliri wa Mliri pa kafukufuku wa Aviation Value Chain ndi monga:
 

• Kuwonongeka kwa Capital: Ngakhale amapereka phindu losasinthika la mliri usanachitike (2012-2019), ndege zonse pamodzi sizinabweretse phindu pazachuma kuposa Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC). Pa avareji gulu la Return in Invested Capital (ROIC) lopangidwa ndi makampani a ndege linali 2.4% pansi pa WACC, pamodzi ndikuwononga pafupifupi $ 17.9 biliyoni ya ndalama chaka chilichonse. 
   
• Yamikirani Chilengedwe: Mliri usanachitike, magawo onse a unyolo wamtengo wapatali kupatulapo ndege zotumizira ROIC mopitilira WACC, ndi ma eyapoti omwe amatsogolera paketiyo pamtengo wobwereranso popereka mphotho kwa osunga ndalama ndi avareji ya $4.6 biliyoni pachaka kuposa WACC (3% ya ndalama). ). Zikawonedwa ngati kuchuluka kwa ndalama, makampani a Global Distribution Systems (GDSs)/Travel Tech adatsogola pamndandandawo ndi kubweza kwapakati pa 8.5% ya ndalama zomwe zimaposa WACC ($700 miliyoni pachaka), kutsatiridwa ndi ogwira ntchito pansi (5.1% ya ndalama kapena $1.5 biliyoni pachaka), ndi Air Navigation Service Providers (ANSPs) pa 4.4% ya ndalama ($ 1.0 biliyoni pachaka). 
   
• Kusintha kwa Mliri: Ngakhale mliri (2020-2021) udawona kutayika pamtengo wamtengo wapatali, mwatsatanetsatane kutayika kwa ndege zidatsogolera paketiyo, pomwe ROIC idatsika pansi pa WACC ndi avareji ya $104.1 biliyoni pachaka (-20.6% yandalama). Mabwalo a ndege adawona ROIC ikugwa $ 34.3 biliyoni pansi pa WACC ndikupanga kuwonongeka kwakukulu kwachuma monga peresenti ya ndalama (-39.5% ya ndalama).

"Kafukufukuyu akutsimikiziranso kuti makampani a ndege adachita bwino m'zaka zotsatira za Global Financial Crisis. Koma zikuwonetsanso momveka bwino kuti ndege, pafupifupi, sizinathe kupindula ndi ndalama zofanana ndi omwe amawapereka ndi ogwira nawo ntchito. Mphotho pamtengo wamtengo wapatali zilinso zosagwirizana ndi chiopsezo. Ndege ndizomwe zimakhudzidwa kwambiri ndi zoopsa koma zimakhala ndi phindu lochepa lopangira ndalama," atero a Willie Walsh, Director General wa IATA.

"Mliriwu udawona osewera onse akugwera m'mavuto azachuma. Makampani akayambanso mavutowa, funso lofunika kwambiri paphunziroli ndilakuti: kodi kugawa bwino kwachuma komanso chiwopsezo kungachitike m'dziko lomwe lachitika mliri?" adatero Walsh.

Zosintha zingapo pazambiri zazachuma zandege zadziwika mu kafukufukuyu:
 

• Pomwe onyamula ma netiweki adachita bwino kwambiri gawo lotsika mtengo (LCCs) lisanachitike mliri, kubweza kwachuma kwapakati ndi omwe amanyamula ma network kudaposa ma LCCs panthawi ya mliri. Kusiyana pakati pa awiriwa, komabe, kwacheperachepera pamene kuchira kumapita patsogolo.
   
• Ndege zomwe zimagwiritsa ntchito maulendo apandege onyamula katundu zimakhala ndi phindu pazachuma ndi ROI pafupifupi 10%. Chifukwa chake, phindu la zonyamula katundu zonse linali m'mbuyo mwa ndege zonyamula anthu okwera ndi katundu. Poyerekeza, magwiridwe antchito a onyamula katundu onse akadali otsika kwambiri pa ROIC yaonyamula katundu omwe adayambitsa zovuta pafupifupi 15% ya ndalama zomwe adapeza ndikufikira 40% yazopeza pofika 2021.
   
• M'chigawochi, zinali zoonekeratu kuti onse onyamula ku North America adalowa muvutoli ndi mapepala abwino kwambiri komanso momwe ndalama zikuyendera kwambiri. Chithunzi chochira sichinadziwike bwino mu 2021, koma popeza zidagwa kwambiri pamavuto, njira yakuchira kwaderali ndiyokwera kwambiri. 

N'chifukwa chiyani makampani a ndege amatulutsa ndalama zochepa?

Kuwunika kwatsopano kwa mphamvu zomwe zimapanga phindu la ndege zomwe zidachitika mu 2011 ndi Pulofesa Michael Porter waku Harvard Business School zikuwonetsa kuti pakhala kusintha kochepa. 
 

• Competitive Fragmented Industry: Makampani oyendetsa ndege ndi opikisana kwambiri, ogawanika ndipo ali ndi zotchinga zazikulu kuti atuluke ndi zopinga zochepa kuti alowe.  
   
• Kapangidwe ka ogulitsa, ogula ndi mayendedwe: Kuchulukirachulukira kwa ogulitsa amphamvu, kupezeka kwa njira zina zomwe zikuyenda bwino m'malo moyenda pandege, zogulira zogulira zotsika mtengo zosinthira komanso gulu la ogula mogawika ndi mawonekedwe a malo ogwirira ntchito. 

“N’zovuta kuona mmene mphamvu zozikika zimenezi zidzasinthiratu posachedwapa. Nthawi zambiri zokonda za omwe ali mu tchati chamtengo wapatali zimasiyana kwambiri kuti zitheke kugwira ntchito ngati ogwirizana kuti ayambitse kusintha komwe kungasinthe mbiri ya phindu pamtengowo. Ichi ndichifukwa chake IATA ipitiliza kuyitanitsa maboma kuti aziwongolera bwino omwe timagwira nawo ntchito kapena omwe ali pafupi ndi omwe amatipatsa zinthu monga ma eyapoti, ma ANSPs ndi ma GDS, "adatero Walsh.

Kuvota kwaposachedwa kwa IATA kukuwonetsa kumvetsetsa kwa anthu pakufunika kowongolera ogulitsa okha. Pafupifupi 85% ya ogula omwe adafunsidwa mu kafukufuku wamayiko 11 adavomereza kuti mitengo yomwe ma eyapoti amalipira iyenera kuyendetsedwa paokha, monga zothandizira.

Mgwirizano

Kafukufuku wamtengo wapatali adawonetsanso madera ena omwe ali ndi chidwi chofanana pomwe mgwirizano waukulu ungapereke phindu kwa onse. Zitsanzo ziwiri zomwe zatchulidwa mu phunziroli ndi izi:
 

• Kupindula koyendetsedwa ndi data: Ndege zimapanga deta yambiri. Pogwira ntchito, kugawana deta kuti apange chithunzi chokwanira cha momwe zisankho za tsiku ndi tsiku zimakhudzira makasitomala, malo okwerera ndege, maulendo a ndege / mayendedwe a ogwira ntchito, ndi kugwiritsa ntchito njira zoyendetsera ndege zikuthandizira kale kuyendetsa bwino kwa onse ogwira ntchito m'makampani pa ma eyapoti ena. Mfundo yomweyi ingagwiritsidwe ntchito m'makampani onse kuti apange zisankho zabwino za nthawi yayitali m'madera kuphatikizapo chitukuko cha zomangamanga, kukonza ndondomeko, ndi chitukuko cha luso. 
   
• Kusokoneza: Kukwaniritsa kutulutsa mpweya kwa zero pofika 2050 sikungachitike ndi ndege zokha. Ogulitsa mafuta amayenera kupanga mafuta okhazikika apandege kuti apezeke okwanira pamitengo yotsika mtengo. Ma ANSP ayenera kupereka njira zabwino zomwe zimachepetsa kutulutsa mpweya. Opanga mainjini ndi ndege akuyenera kubweretsa kumsika ndege zomwe sizingawononge mafuta ambiri ndikugwiritsa ntchito njira zothamangitsira mpweya wochepa kapena ziro monga haidrojeni kapena magetsi. Amene akupereka chithandizo pabwalo la ndege adzafunika kusintha kukhala magalimoto amagetsi. 

"Palibe njira yamatsenga yolumikiziranso mtengo wamtengo wapatali. Koma zikuwonekeratu kuti zofuna za maboma, apaulendo ndi ena omwe atenga nawo mbali pazachuma zimathandizidwa bwino ndi omwe ali ndi thanzi labwino komanso makamaka ndege. Kuphatikizika kwa malamulo abwino ndi mgwirizano m'madera okondana kungayambitse singano. Ndipo pali madera osachepera awiri okonzeka kuti agwirizane ndi kugawana zolemetsa-kufunafuna phindu loyendetsedwa ndi deta komanso decarbonization, "anatero Walsh.

"Ndife onyadira kuti tithandizana ndi IATA kuyambira 2005 pakumvetsetsa mtengo womwe udapangidwa pamayendedwe onse oyendetsa ndege. Pa nthawiyo, mafakitale oyendetsa ndege awona zovuta zingapo komanso kubwereranso. Koma mtengo wandalama wandege sunabwezerepo mtengo wake. Ndege zakhala zofooka kwambiri, ngakhale m'zaka zawo zabwino kwambiri zomwe sizikubweza ndalama zambiri. Koma pali zopambana, ndipo makampani pamtengo wamtengo wapatali amatha kugwirira ntchito limodzi kuti athandize makasitomala, ndikuwongolera mtengo, "atero Nina Wittkamp, ​​Partner ku McKinsey.