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Ndege ndizokhazikika

IATA

Anthu akuuluka mochulukirachulukira. Kodi pali oyendetsa ndege okwanira kuti athetse kukhazikitsidwanso kwa kayendetsedwe ka ndege? Malipoti a IATA

Anthu akuuluka mochulukirachulukira. Komabe, kodi pali oyendetsa ndege ndi ogwira ntchito okwanira kuti athe kuthana ndi kukhazikitsidwanso kwa kayendetsedwe ka ndege?

Bungwe la International Air Transport Association (IATA) likuganiza choncho. Bungwe loyendetsa ndege lomwe lili ndi mamembala a ndege padziko lonse lapansi lalengeza zakusintha momwe likuyendera pamakampani opanga ndege mu 2022.

Izi zikubwera komanso kuchira ku vuto la COVID-19.

Zoneneratu za IATA zafotokozedwa m'nkhani yomwe yatulutsidwa lero:

  • Kuwonongeka kwamakampani kukuyembekezeka kutsika mpaka $9.7 biliyoni (kuchokera pa zomwe zanenedweratu mu Okutobala 2021 kuti $ 11.6 biliyoni zitayika) pamtengo wotayika wa -1.2%. Uku ndikusintha kwakukulu kuchokera pakutayika kwa $137.7 biliyoni (-36.0% net margin) mu 2020 ndi $42.1 biliyoni (-8.3% net margin) mu 2021.
     
  • Kupindula kwamakampani onse mu 2023 kukuwoneka kuti kungafikire pomwe North America ikuyembekezeka kale kubweretsa phindu la $ 8.8 biliyoni mu 2022.
     
  • Kupindula bwino ndi kuwongolera zokolola zikuthandizira ndege kuti zichepetse kutayika ngakhale kukwera mtengo kwantchito ndi mafuta (zotsirizirazi zimayendetsedwa ndi kuwonjezeka kwa + 40% pamtengo wamafuta padziko lonse lapansi komanso kufalikira kwapang'onopang'ono kufalikira chaka chino).
     
  • Chiyembekezo chamakampani komanso kudzipereka pakuchepetsa mpweya wotulutsa mpweya zikuwonekera pakukula kwa ndege zopitilira 1,200 mu 2022.
     
  • Kufuna kwamphamvu kwapang'onopang'ono, kukweza ziletso zoyendera m'misika yambiri, kusowa kwa ntchito m'maiko ambiri, komanso kuchulukitsa ndalama zomwe anthu amasungirako zikuwonjezera kufunikira komwe kudzawona kuti okwera afika 83% ya mliri usanachitike mu 2022.
     
  • Ngakhale pali zovuta zachuma, kuchuluka kwa katundu kukuyembekezeka kukwera matani 68.4 miliyoni mu 2022.

"Ndege ndizokhazikika. Anthu akuuluka mochulukirachulukira. Ndipo zonyamula katundu zikuyenda bwino chifukwa cha kusatsimikizika kwachuma komwe kukukulirakulira. Zotayika zidzachepetsedwa kufika pa $9.7 biliyoni chaka chino ndipo phindu lili pafupi ndi 2023. Ino ndi nthawi yoti mukhale ndi chiyembekezo, ngakhale pangakhale zovuta pamitengo, makamaka mafuta, ndi zoletsa zina zomwe zidakalipo m'misika yochepa," adatero Willie. Walsh, Director-General wa IATA.

Ndalama zikuchulukirachulukira pomwe ziletso za COVID-19 zikuyenda mosavuta ndipo anthu amabwerera kumayendedwe. Vuto la 2022 ndikuwongolera ndalama.

“Kuchepa kwa zinthu zomwe zatayika kumabwera chifukwa chogwira ntchito molimbika kuti ndalama zisamayende bwino pomwe bizinesi ikukwera. Kusintha kwa kawonedwe kazachuma kumabwera chifukwa chokhala ndi ndalama zokwera 44% pomwe ndalama zakwera 55%. Pamene makampaniwa akubwereranso kuzinthu zomwe zimapangidwira bwino komanso kukwera mtengo kwamafuta komwe kungathe kukhalapo kwakanthawi, phindu lidzadalira kupitiliza kuwongolera mtengo. Ndipo izi zikuphatikiza ma value chain. Othandizira athu, kuphatikiza ma eyapoti ndi opereka chithandizo choyendetsa ndege, ayenera kuyang'ana kwambiri pakuwongolera ndalama monga makasitomala awo kuti athandizire kuyambiranso kwamakampani," adatero Walsh.

Ndalama zamakampani zikuyembekezeka kufika $782 biliyoni (+ 54.5% pa 2021), 93.3% ya milingo ya 2019. Ndege zomwe zidagwiritsidwa ntchito mu 2022 zikuyembekezeka kufika 33.8 miliyoni, zomwe ndi 86.9% ya 2019 (ndege 38.9 miliyoni).

  • Ndalama zonyamula anthu akuyembekezeka kuwerengera ndalama zokwana $498 biliyoni zamabizinesi, kupitilira kuwirikiza kawiri $239 biliyoni omwe adapangidwa mu 2021. Chiwerengero cha okwera akuyembekezeka kufika 3.8 biliyoni, ndi ma kilomita okwera (RPKs) omwe akukula 97.6% poyerekeza ndi 2021, kufika 82.4% ya 2019 magalimoto. Pomwe kufunikira kwa pent-up kumatulutsidwa ndikuchepetsa kwa zoletsa kuyenda, zokolola zikuyembekezeka kukwera ndi 5.6%. Izi zikutsatira kusinthika kwa zokolola za -9.1% mu 2020 ndi +3.8% mu 2021.
     
  • Ndalama za katundu akuyembekezeka kuwerengera ndalama zokwana $191 biliyoni zamabizinesi. Izi zatsika pang'ono kuchokera ku $ 204 biliyoni zomwe zidalembedwa mu 2021, koma pafupifupi kuwirikiza kawiri $ 100 biliyoni zomwe zapezedwa mu 2019. Ponseponse, makampaniwa akuyembekezeka kunyamula matani opitilira 68 miliyoni mu 2022, omwe ndi mbiri yakale. Pamene malo ogulitsa akufewetsa pang'ono, zokolola za katundu zikuyembekezeka kutsika 10.4% poyerekeza ndi 2021. Izi zimangosintha pang'ono kuwonjezeka kwa zokolola za 52.5% mu 2020 ndi 24.2% mu 2021.

Ndalama zonse zikuyembekezeka kukwera mpaka $ 796 biliyoni. Uku ndikuwonjezeka kwa 44% mu 2021, zomwe zikuwonetsa zonse zomwe zikufunika pothandizira ntchito zazikulu komanso mtengo wakukwera kwamitengo pazinthu zina zofunika.

  • mafuta: Pa $ 192 biliyoni, mafuta ndiye mtengo waukulu kwambiri pamsika mu 2022 (24% yamitengo yonse, kuchokera ku 19% mu 2021). Izi zimachokera pamtengo woyembekezeredwa wa Brent crude wa $101.2/mgolo ndi $125.5 palafini wa jet. Ndege zikuyembekezeka kudya malita 321billion amafuta mu 2022 poyerekeza ndi malita 359 biliyoni omwe adagwiritsidwa ntchito mu 2019.

    Nkhondo ku Ukraine ikuchititsa kuti mitengo ya mafuta a Brent ikhale yokwera kwambiri. Ngakhale zili choncho, mafuta adzawerengera pafupifupi kotala la mtengo wa 2022. Chinthu chinanso cha msika wamafuta a chaka chino ndi kufalikira kwakukulu pakati pa mitengo yamafuta amafuta ndi a jeti. Kufalikira kwa jet crack uku kumakhalabe pamwamba pa zomwe zidachitika kale, makamaka chifukwa chazovuta zamafakitale oyeretsa. Kupanda ndalama m'derali kungatanthauze kuti kufalikira kumakhalabe kokwezeka mpaka 2023. Panthawi imodzimodziyo, mitengo yamtengo wapatali ya mafuta ndi mafuta ikhoza kuona kuti ndege zikuyenda bwino - pogwiritsira ntchito ndege zowonongeka komanso pogwiritsa ntchito zisankho zogwirira ntchito.
     
  • Ntchito: Ntchito ndi chinthu chachiwiri chokwera mtengo kwambiri pamakampani oyendetsa ndege. Ntchito zachindunji m'gululi zikuyembekezeka kufika pa 2.7 miliyoni, kukwera 4.3% mu 2021 pomwe makampaniwo akuyambiranso kuchoka pakutsika kwakukulu kwa ntchito mu 2020. Ntchito zikadalibe, komabe, pang'onopang'ono ntchito 2.93 miliyoni mu 2019 ndipo ikuyembekezeka kukhalabe pansi. mlingo uwu kwa nthawi ndithu. Ndalama zogwirira ntchito zikuyembekezeka kukhala 12.2 cents / kupezeka kwa matani kilomita (ATK) mu 2022, zomwe zabwereranso ku milingo ya 2019 pomwe inali 12.3 cents/ATK.

    Nthawi yofunikira kuti mulembetse, kuphunzitsa, kutsimikizira chitetezo / mbiri yakale, ndikuchita zina zofunika antchito asanakhale "okonzeka kugwira ntchito" akupereka zovuta kumakampani mu 2022. Nthawi zina, kuchedwa kwa ntchito kumatha kukhala ngati cholepheretsa kuthekera kwa ndege kukwaniritsa zofuna za anthu.

    M'mayiko omwe kukwera kwachuma chifukwa cha mliriwu kwakhala kofulumira komanso kuchuluka kwa kusowa kwa ntchito kuli kochepa, misika yotsika mtengo yantchito komanso kusowa kwa luso zitha kupangitsa kuti malipiro achuluke. Ndalama zolipirira makampani akuyembekezeka kufika $173 biliyoni mu 2022, kukwera 7.9% mu 2021, komanso mosagwirizana ndi kuchuluka kwa 4.3% kwa ntchito zonse.

Macro-Economic Factors

Kukula kwachuma chapadziko lonse lapansi ndikofunikira pamalingaliro amakampani. Zoloserazo zikuphatikiza lingaliro la kukula kolimba kwa GDP padziko lonse lapansi kwa 3.4% mu 2022, kutsika kuchokera ku 5.8% yowonjezerekanso chaka chatha. Inflation yakwera ndipo ikuyembekezeka kukhalabe yokwera mu 2022, ikucheperachepera m'chaka cha 2023. Ndipo, ngakhale kuti chiwongoladzanja chodziwika bwino chikukwera, chiwongoladzanja chenichenicho chikuyembekezeka kukhalabe chochepa kapena cholakwika kwa nthawi yokhazikika.

Zowopsa

Pali zinthu zingapo zoopsa zomwe zimakhudzana ndi malingaliro awa.

Nkhondo ku Ukraine

Mphamvu ya nkhondo ya ku Ukraine pa kayendetsedwe ka ndege ndi yocheperapo poyerekeza ndi ngozi yothandiza anthu. Malingaliro akuganiza kuti nkhondo ku Ukraine sidzapitirira malire ake. Zina mwazovuta zambiri za kukwera kwa ndege, kukwera kwamitengo yamafuta komanso kuchepa kwa kufunikira kwazomwe zimachitika chifukwa cha kuchepa kwa malingaliro a ogula ndizomwe zingakhale zazikulu.

  • Wokwera: Kuphatikiza, msika wapadziko lonse wa Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, ndi Moldova udapanga 2.3% ya magalimoto padziko lonse lapansi mu 2021. Kuphatikiza apo, pafupifupi 7% ya anthu okwera padziko lonse lapansi (RPK) amatha kudutsa ndege yaku Russia (data ya 2021), yomwe tsopano ili zotsekedwa kwa ogwira ntchito ambiri, makamaka m'misewu yayitali pakati pa Asia ndi Europe kapena North America. Pali mtengo wokwera kwambiri wowongolera njira kwa onyamula omwe akhudzidwa.
     
  • katundu: Pang'ono ndi pang'ono 1% ya magalimoto onyamula katundu padziko lonse lapansi adachokera kapena amadutsa ku Russia ndi Ukraine. Kukhudzidwa kwakukulu kuli m'dera lapadera la katundu wolemera kwambiri kumene Russia ndi Ukraine ndi atsogoleri a msika, ndipo kutayika kofananako kumakhala kovuta kusintha. Ndipo pafupifupi 19% ya katundu wapadziko lonse lapansi (CTKs) amadutsa mumlengalenga waku Russia (data ya 2021). Onyamula katundu omwe akhudzidwa ndi zilango amakumana ndi zokwera mtengo zowongoleranso njira.

Inflation, Chiwongola dzanja, ndi Kusinthana kwa Ndalama

Chiwongola dzanja chikukwera pamene mabanki apakati akulimbana ndi kukwera kwa mitengo. Kupatula iwo omwe ali ndi ngongole (omwe adzawona kukwera kwa mitengo kukuchepetsa ngongole zawo), kukwera kwa mitengo kumakhala kovulaza ndipo kumakhala ndi zovuta zachuma za msonkho pochepetsa mphamvu zogulira. Pali chiwopsezo chochepa pamalingaliro awa ngati kukwera kwa inflation kupitilira kukwera, ndipo mabanki apakati apitiliza kukweza chiwongola dzanja.

Komanso, mphamvu ya mbiri ya dola ya US, ngati ipitirira, idzakhala ndi zotsatira zoipa monga dola yamphamvu ya US ikukulirakulirakulirakulira. Zimawonjezera mtengo wandalama zakumaloko pangongole zonse za USD ndipo zimawonjezeranso mtolo wolipirira zogulira mafuta ochokera kunja kwa USD.

Covid 19

Chifuniro chachikulu cha maulendo ndi champhamvu. Koma mayankho aboma ku COVID-19 adanyalanyaza upangiri wa World Health Organisation woti kutseka malire si njira yabwino yothanirana ndi kufalikira kwa kachilomboka. Malingaliro akuganiza kuti chitetezo champhamvu komanso chokulirapo cha anthu ku COVID-19 chikutanthauza kuti sipadzakhalanso kubwereza zolakwika za mfundozi. Komabe, pali chiwopsezo chochepa ngati maboma abwereranso ku mayankho otseka malire pakubuka kwamtsogolo.

"Maboma ayenera kuti adaphunzirapo kanthu pazovuta za COVID-19. Kutsekedwa kwa malire kumabweretsa mavuto azachuma koma kumapereka zochepa pakuwongolera kufalikira kwa kachilomboka. Ndi kuchuluka kwa chitetezo chokwanira cha anthu, njira zapamwamba zachipatala, ndi njira zowunikira, zoopsa za COVID-19 zitha kuwongoleredwa. Pakadali pano, palibe pomwe ndalama za anthu komanso zachuma zotseka malire a COVID-19 zitha kukhala zomveka, "atero a Walsh.

China

Msika wakunyumba waku China wokha udatenga pafupifupi 10% ya kuchuluka kwa anthu padziko lonse lapansi mu 2019. Izi zikuwonetsa kuchepetsedwa pang'onopang'ono kwa ziletso za COVID-19 mu theka lachiwiri la 2022. zamakampani. Kukhazikitsa kwanthawi yayitali kwa mfundo za COVID-19 kupitilirabe kukhumudwitsa msika wachiwiri waukulu kwambiri padziko lonse lapansi ndikuwononga mayendedwe apadziko lonse lapansi.

3. Regional Round-Up

Kuchita bwino kwachuma m'magawo onse kukuyembekezeka kukwera mu 2022 poyerekeza ndi 2021 (magawo onse adachita bwino mu 2021 poyerekeza ndi 2020).

North America ikuyembekezeka kupitilizabe kukhala dera lochita bwino kwambiri komanso dera lokhalo lomwe libwereranso ku phindu mu 2022. Mothandizidwa ndi msika waukulu wapakhomo waku US ndikutseguliranso misika yapadziko lonse lapansi, kuphatikiza North Atlantic, phindu lazachuma likuyembekezeredwa. $8.8 biliyoni mu 2022. Demand (RPKs) akuyembekezeka kufika 95.0% ya pre-crisis milingo (2019), ndi mphamvu 99.5%.

Europe: Ku Europe, nkhondo ya Russia-Ukraine ipitilira kusokoneza machitidwe oyendayenda ku Europe komanso pakati pa Europe ndi Asia-Pacific. Komabe, nkhondoyi sikuyembekezeka kusokoneza kuyenda bwino, derali likuyandikira kupindula mu 2022, ndikutayika kokwanira kwa $ 3.9 biliyoni. Demand (RPKs) ikuyembekezeka kufika 82.7% yamavuto asanachitike (2019), ndi mphamvu 90.0%.

Kwa ndege zaku Asia-Pacific, ziletso zolimba komanso zokhazikika (makamaka ku China), komanso kutulutsidwa kwa katemera wosagwirizana, zawona kuti derali likuchira mpaka pano. Pamene zoletsazo zikuchepa, kufunikira kwapaulendo kukuyembekezeka kukwera mwachangu. Zowonongeka zonse mu 2022 zikuyembekezeka kutsika mpaka $ 8.9 biliyoni. Demand (RPKs) ikuyembekezeka kufika 73.7% yamavuto asanachitike (2019), ndi mphamvu pa 81.5%.

Kuchuluka kwa magalimoto ku Latin America kudachira bwino mu 2021, mothandizidwa ndi misika yapakhomo komanso zoletsa zochepa zoyendera m'maiko ambiri. Malingaliro azachuma a ndege zina, komabe, amakhalabe osalimba ndipo derali likuyembekezeka kulemba ndalama zokwana $3.2 biliyoni chaka chino. Demand (RPKs) ikuyembekezeka kufika 94.2% ya pre-crisis milingo (2019), ndi mphamvu pa 93.2%.Ku Middle East, chaka chino kutsegulidwanso kwa mayendedwe apadziko lonse lapansi ndi maulendo apamtunda wautali, makamaka, kudzapereka kulimbikitsa kwa ambiri. Kudera lonselo, zotayika zonse zikuyembekezeka kutsika mpaka $ 1.9 biliyoni mu 2022, kuchokera pakutayika kwa $ 4.7 biliyoni chaka chatha. Demand (RPKs) ikuyembekezeka kufika 79.1% yamavuto asanachitike (2019), ndi mphamvu pa 80.5%.

In Africa, kuchepa kwa katemera wachepetsa kuchira kwa maulendo apandege mpaka pano. Komabe, ena adzagwira ntchito chaka chino, zomwe zingathandize kuti ndalama ziyende bwino. Zowonongeka zonse zikuyembekezeka kukhala $ 0.7 biliyoni mu 2022. Demand (RPKs) ikuyembekezeka kufika 72.0% ya pre-crisis milingo (2019), ndi mphamvu 75.2%.

Nkhani Zogwirizana

Ponena za wolemba

Wachinyamata T Steinmetz

Juergen Thomas Steinmetz wakhala akugwirabe ntchito zapaulendo komanso zokopa alendo kuyambira ali wachinyamata ku Germany (1977).
Iye adayambitsa eTurboNews mu 1999 ngati nkhani yoyamba yapaintaneti yantchito zapaulendo padziko lonse lapansi.

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